Tag Archives: Google

Why Google Ripples will be a lot less cool than it sounds.

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Google + now has a new feature, Ripples, that allows you to see a network visualization of the diffusion of a post (see the Gizmodo article here).  The pictures are cool, but the original post has to be public, and then it has to be shared by one Google+ user to other Google+ users.  But, the chance of interesting ripples happening very often are pretty slim; here’s why.

Bakshy, Hofman, Mason, and Watts looked at exactly this kind of cascade on Twitter, which is a great platform for this kind of research for several reasons.  First, everything is effectively public, so there are none of the privacy issues of Facebook, and we don’t have to limit ourselves to looking at just the messages that people choose to make public like we do on Google +.  Second, “retweeting” messages is an established part of Twitter culture, so we expect to find cascades. Finally, since tweets are limited to 140 characters, links are often shortened using services like bit.ly.  This means that if I create a link to a New York Times article and you create a link to the same page independently, those links will be different, so the researchers can tell the difference between a cascade that my post creates and one that yours creates.

Some of the cascades that Bakshy et al. found are shown in this figure.

They looked at 74 million chains like these initiated by more than 1.6 million Twitter users during two months in 2009.  A lot of interesting things came out of the study, but the most important one for Google Ripples is that 98 percent of the URLs were never reposted.  That’s not good for Ripples.  The latest number puts the entire Google plus user population at only 43.6 million users, and since only a small fraction of these users’ posts will be public posts, even if people share other people’s posts on Google+ as frequently as the retweet links on Twitter (which is unlikely), we still can’t expect to see many Ripples that look like anything but a lonely circle.

Exploration versus Exploitation in Google’s Think Quarterly

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In Google’s first issue of “Think Quarterly,” it’s new business to business publication, Susan Wojcicki, Google’s employee number 16, sums up the classic exploration versus exploitation tradeoff writing, “We face the classic innovator’s dilemma: should we invest in brand new products, or should we improve existing ones?”

James March laid out this ubiquitous dilemma, which every organization faces in one form or another, in his now classic paper, “Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning.”  Each summer at the University of Michigan’s ICPSR Summer Program on Quantitative Methods I co-teach a course on complex systems models in the social sciences in which I often discuss March’s famous paper (in fact, we just discussed the paper today).  In going over the paper this summer I was struck again by the continuing relevance of his insights.

The quote that grabbed me today was, “… adaptive processes characteristically improve exploitation more rapidly than exploration … these tendencies to o increase exploitation and reduce exploration make adaptive processes potentially self-destructive.”  Here, March says we have to constantly be on guard to preserve exploration in our organizations.  Our natural tendency, just by doing what’s best for us in the short run, is to gradually scale back exploration in favor exploitation, until all we do is exploit.  But, in doing so, we ultimately doom our organization to failure because we’re no longer able to adapt to changing environment, or we lock into a sub optimal solution and eventually our competitors surpass us (see the earlier post on Borders).  March issued this warning to all organizations long before Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma.  The process of adaptation that makes us good at what we do now will destroy us down the road if we don’t actively work to preserve exploration in our organization.  Which brings us back to Google.  Google is famous for so-called “20 percent time” in which engineers are asked to dedicate a full day a week to things “not necessarily in their job description.”  This is Google’s way of actively maintaining exploration in their organization.  So far, it seems to be working for them.